Race for the 99th Academy Awards

Best Supporting Actress

10 contenders, tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

1
Anne Hathaway
Frontrunner
The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026
Variety's predicted winner. NBP 17/17 nominate, 16/17 to win.
2
Samantha Morton
Contender
The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026
NBP 15/17 nominate. Variety No. 2.
3
Penélope Cruz
Contender
The Invite · A24 · Released Jun 26, 2026
NBP 13/17 nominate. Variety No. 3.
4
Penélope Cruz
Contender
La Bola Negra · Netflix · Out Oct 16, 2026
NBP 12/17 nominate. Variety No. 5. A new 99th Oscars rule lets one actor earn two nominations in the same category.
5
Tao Okamoto
Contender
All of a Sudden · Neon · Out Nov 25, 2026
- Cannes: Best Actress (shared, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto)
Shared Cannes actress prize; campaigned here per NBP (14/17 nominate).
6
Kate O'Flynn
Longshot
Tender Loving Care · Bleecker Street · Out Dec 4, 2026
Variety No. 4.
7
Sandra Hüller
Longshot
Project Hail Mary · Amazon MGM Studios · Released Mar 20, 2026
AwardsWatch No. 3 on Sept 10.
8
Olivia Colman
Longshot
Elsinore · Focus Features · Out Nov 20, 2026
AwardsWatch No. 5 on Sept 10.
9
Carla Gugino
Longshot
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth · Netflix · Out Nov 25, 2026
Awards Daily No. 3. Film unseen.
10
Mariana di Girolamo
Longshot
Wild Horse Nine · Searchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026
Outside the main fives.

Precursor record, 2000 to 2026

2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed

Actor Awards

22/27

81%

Critics Choice

20/27

74%

BAFTA

18/27

67%

Globes

17/27

63%

2026: Actor Awards and the Oscar both went to Amy Madigan.

Best Supporting Actress: how often each precursor matched, by window
Window	2000 to 2026	Since 2010	Last 10
Actor Awards	22/27	16/17	9/10
Critics Choice	20/27	15/17	8/10
BAFTA	18/27	11/17	7/10
Globes	17/27	12/17	7/10

Every miss, year by year

Actor Awards: 2001 (Judi Dench, not Marcia Gay Harden); 2002 (Helen Mirren, not Jennifer Connelly); 2008 (Ruby Dee, not Tilda Swinton); 2009 (Kate Winslet, not Penélope Cruz); 2019 (Emily Blunt, not Regina King)list
Critics Choice: 2001 (Frances McDormand, not Marcia Gay Harden); 2005 (Virginia Madsen, not Cate Blanchett); 2006 (Michelle Williams and Amy Adams, not Rachel Weisz); 2008 (Amy Ryan, not Tilda Swinton); 2009 (Kate Winslet, not Penélope Cruz); 2021 (Maria Bakalova, not Yuh-Jung Youn); 2023 (Angela Bassett, not Jamie Lee Curtis)list
BAFTA: 2000 (Maggie Smith, not Angelina Jolie); 2001 (Julie Walters, not Marcia Gay Harden); 2006 (Thandiwe Newton, not Rachel Weisz); 2011 (Helena Bonham Carter, not Melissa Leo); 2014 (Jennifer Lawrence, not Lupita Nyong'o); 2016 (Kate Winslet, not Alicia Vikander); 2019 (Rachel Weisz, not Regina King); 2023 (Kerry Condon, not Jamie Lee Curtis); 2026 (Wunmi Mosaku, not Amy Madigan)list
Globes: 2001 (Kate Hudson, not Marcia Gay Harden); 2003 (Meryl Streep, not Catherine Zeta-Jones); 2005 (Natalie Portman, not Cate Blanchett); 2008 (Cate Blanchett, not Tilda Swinton); 2009 (Kate Winslet, not Penélope Cruz); 2014 (Jennifer Lawrence, not Lupita Nyong'o); 2016 (Kate Winslet, not Alicia Vikander); 2021 (Jodie Foster, not Yuh-Jung Youn); 2023 (Angela Bassett, not Jamie Lee Curtis); 2026 (Teyana Taylor, not Amy Madigan)list