Race for the 99th Academy Awards

Best Actress

10 contenders, tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

1
Julianne Moore
Frontrunner
The Debut · A24 · Out Dec 11, 2026
Variety's predicted winner. NBP 16/17 nominate, 15/17 to win.
2
Inde Navarrette
Contender
Obsession · Focus Features · Released May 15, 2026
NBP 16/17 nominate. Variety No. 3, Awards Daily No. 3.
3
Sandra Hüller
Contender
Rose · Mubi · Out Dec 11, 2026
- Berlinale: Silver Bear for Best Leading Performance (Sandra Hüller)
Berlin Silver Bear for Rose. NBP 16/17 nominate for Rose. Variety lists her for Fatherland instead, so which film she campaigns for is an open question.
4
Olivia Wilde
Contender
The Invite · A24 · Released Jun 26, 2026
NBP 14/17 nominate. Variety No. 4.
5
Virginie Efira
Contender
All of a Sudden · Neon · Out Nov 25, 2026
- Cannes: Best Actress (shared, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto)
Shared Cannes actress prize. NBP 13/17 nominate.
6
Ruth Madeley
Contender
Being Heumann · Apple TV · Out Nov 6, 2026
Awards Daily No. 1 (Oct 2). Outside NBP's five.
7
Renate Reinsve
Longshot
Fjord · Neon · Out Oct 9, 2026
Awards Daily alternate.
8
Carrie Coon
Longshot
The Liberation · Bleecker Street · US release listed only as November 2026
AwardsWatch No. 5 (Sept 10).
9
Marion Bailey
Longshot
Tender Loving Care · Bleecker Street · Out Dec 4, 2026
Variety No. 5.
10
Mathilde Arcel
Longshot
no US distributor announced; Denmark release Feb 4, 2027
- Venice: Volpi Cup for Best Actress (Mathilde Arcel)
Venice Volpi Cup winner. Film has no US distributor yet. IMDb ID not verified.

Precursor record, 2000 to 2026

2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed

Globes

Drama or Musical or Comedy winner

23/27

85%

BAFTA

19/27

70%

Actor Awards

18/27

67%

Critics Choice

16/27

59%

2026: Globes and the Oscar both went to Jessie Buckley.

Best Actress: how often each precursor matched, by window
Window	2000 to 2026	Since 2010	Last 10
Globes	23/27	14/17	7/10
BAFTA	19/27	13/17	8/10
Actor Awards	18/27	12/17	6/10
Critics Choice	16/27	10/17	5/10

Globes counts either winner. Alone: Drama 16 of 27; Musical or Comedy 7 of 27.

Every miss, year by year

Globes: 2002 (Sissy Spacek and Nicole Kidman, not Halle Berry); 2021 (Andra Day and Rosamund Pike, not Frances McDormand); 2022 (Nicole Kidman and Rachel Zegler, not Jessica Chastain); 2025 (Fernanda Torres and Demi Moore, not Mikey Madison)list
BAFTA: 2000 (Annette Bening, not Hilary Swank); 2002 (Judi Dench, not Halle Berry); 2004 (Scarlett Johansson, not Charlize Theron); 2005 (Imelda Staunton, not Hilary Swank); 2010 (Carey Mulligan, not Sandra Bullock); 2013 (Emmanuelle Riva, not Jennifer Lawrence); 2022 (Joanna Scanlan, not Jessica Chastain); 2023 (Cate Blanchett, not Michelle Yeoh)list
Actor Awards: 2000 (Annette Bening, not Hilary Swank); 2003 (Renée Zellweger, not Nicole Kidman); 2008 (Julie Christie, not Marion Cotillard); 2009 (Meryl Streep, not Kate Winslet); 2012 (Viola Davis, not Meryl Streep); 2019 (Glenn Close, not Olivia Colman); 2021 (Viola Davis, not Frances McDormand); 2024 (Lily Gladstone, not Emma Stone); 2025 (Demi Moore, not Mikey Madison)list
Critics Choice: 2002 (Sissy Spacek, not Halle Berry); 2003 (Julianne Moore, not Nicole Kidman); 2008 (Julie Christie, not Marion Cotillard); 2009 (Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway, not Kate Winslet); 2012 (Viola Davis, not Meryl Streep); 2013 (Jessica Chastain, not Jennifer Lawrence); 2017 (Natalie Portman, not Emma Stone); 2019 (Lady Gaga and Glenn Close, not Olivia Colman); 2021 (Carey Mulligan, not Frances McDormand); 2023 (Cate Blanchett, not Michelle Yeoh); 2025 (Demi Moore, not Mikey Madison)list