No. 1 for Variety (Oct 1), Awards Daily (Oct 2), World of Reel (Oct 6) and THR (Sept 12). NBP staff: 17/17 nominate, 9/17 pick it to win. About $1.77B worldwide per Wikipedia.
Live race · 99th Academy Awards
The Oscar race
Tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. .
To nominations
106days
Thu, Jan 21, 2027
To the ceremony
158days
Sun, Mar 14, 2027
The season
Key dates
Ranked from the trackers, with this season's prizes
Best Picture
No. 2Contender
La Bola Negra
Netflix · Out Oct 16, 2026
- Cannes: Best Director (tie, Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)
- TIFF: People's Choice Award
Closest challenger. NBP staff: 17/17 nominate, 8/17 pick it to win. Variety No. 3, Awards Daily No. 2. Also Spain's International Feature entry.
No. 3Contender
Wild Horse Nine
Searchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026
- Venice: Volpi Cup for Best Actor (John Malkovich)
In every tracker's ten. Variety No. 4, NBP 17/17 nominate. Venice and Telluride premiere.
In every tracker's ten. NBP 17/17 nominate. March release, about $685M worldwide per Wikipedia.
Not yet screened. Variety No. 2, NBP 17/17 nominate. Opens Dec 18.
Telluride premiere. Variety No. 10, NBP 14/17 nominate.
Sundance premiere, June release. Variety No. 6, NBP 16/17 nominate.
No. 8Contender
All of a Sudden
Neon · Out Nov 25, 2026
- Cannes: Best Actress (shared, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto)
NBP 14/17 nominate. Japan's International Feature entry.
No. 9Contender
I Play Rocky
Amazon MGM Studios · Out Nov 6, 2026
- TIFF: People's Choice Award, first runner-up
Variety No. 5, Awards Daily No. 6. Not in NBP's top ten.
Awards Daily No. 5. Romania's International Feature entry.
Low-budget hit (about $520M worldwide on a budget under $1M, per Wikipedia). NBP 6/17 nominate, Awards Daily No. 9.
Not yet screened. Awards Daily No. 8. David Fincher directs a Quentin Tarantino script.
Frontrunner leads most trackers. Contender is inside most predicted tens. Longshot is on at least one list.
Festivals and precursors
Results so far
La Bola Negra took People's Choice Award51st Toronto International Film Festival · Sep 20, 2026
I Play Rocky took People's Choice Award, first runner-up51st Toronto International Film Festival · Sep 20, 2026- Elsinore took International People's Choice Award51st Toronto International Film Festival · Sep 20, 2026
Possible Love took International People's Choice Award, first runner-up51st Toronto International Film Festival · Sep 20, 2026
Wild Horse Nine took Volpi Cup for Best Actor (John Malkovich)83rd Venice International Film Festival · Sep 12, 2026
Woman Unknown took Volpi Cup for Best Actress (Mathilde Arcel)83rd Venice International Film Festival · Sep 12, 2026- Possible Love took Silver Lion, Grand Jury Prize83rd Venice International Film Festival · Sep 12, 2026
- Woman Unknown took Golden Lion83rd Venice International Film Festival · Sep 12, 2026
9 more categories
Every other race
Best Director
Make your pick- 1Christopher NolanThe Odyssey
- 21Javier Ambrossi and Javier CalvoLa Bola Negra
- 3Martin McDonaghWild Horse Nine
- 4Denis VilleneuveDune: Part Three
- 5Olivia WildeThe Invite
Best Actor
Make your pick- 11John MalkovichWild Horse Nine
- 2Matt DamonThe Odyssey
- 31Andrew ScottElsinore
- 4Tom CruiseDigger
- 5Ryan GoslingProject Hail Mary
Best Actress
Make your pick- 1Julianne MooreThe Debut
- 2Inde NavarretteObsession
- 31Sandra HüllerRose
- 4Olivia WildeThe Invite
- 51Virginie EfiraAll of a Sudden
Best Supporting Actor
Make your pick- 1Paul GiamattiThe Debut
- 2Sam RockwellWild Horse Nine
- 3John LeguizamoThe Odyssey
- 4Edward NortonThe Invite
- 5Andrew GarfieldArtificial
Best Supporting Actress
Make your pick- 1Anne HathawayThe Odyssey
- 2Samantha MortonThe Odyssey
- 3Penélope CruzThe Invite
- 4Penélope CruzLa Bola Negra
- 51Tao OkamotoAll of a Sudden
Best Original Screenplay
Make your pick- 1Martin McDonaghWild Horse Nine
- 2Jesse EisenbergThe Debut
- 31Cristian MungiuFjord
- 4Curry BarkerObsession
- 5Jordan FirstmanClub Kid
Best Adapted Screenplay
Make your pick- 1Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo and Alberto ConejeroLa Bola Negra
- 2Rashida Jones and Will McCormackThe Invite
- 3Christopher NolanThe Odyssey
- 4Drew GoddardProject Hail Mary
- 5Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Léa Le DimnaAll of a Sudden
Best International Feature
Make your pick- 12La Bola NegraSpain
- 2
1FjordRomania - 3
1All of a SuddenJapan - 42Possible LoveSouth Korea
- 5
1MinotaurFrance
Best Animated Feature
Make your pick- 1
WildwoodFathom Entertainment - 2
Toy Story 5Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures - 3
Ray GunnNetflix - 4
3Iron BoySony Pictures Classics - 5
Forgotten IslandUniversal Pictures
Precursor scorecard, 2000 to 2026
What usually predicts the winner
2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed
PGA
Darryl F. Zanuck Award
20/27
74%
Critics Choice
19/27
70%
Actor Awards
Cast award
14/27
52%
Globes
Drama or Musical or Comedy winner
14/27
52%
BAFTA
12/27
44%
2026: PGA and the Oscar both went to One Battle after Another.
| Window | 2000 to 2026 | Since 2010 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGA | 20/27 | 14/17 | 8/10 |
| Critics Choice | 19/27 | 11/17 | 6/10 |
| Actor Awards | 14/27 | 8/17 | 4/10 |
| Globes | 14/27 | 8/17 | 5/10 |
| BAFTA | 12/27 | 8/17 | 3/10 |
Globes counts either winner. Alone: Drama 10 of 27; Musical or Comedy 4 of 27.
Every miss, year by year
- PGA: 2002 (Moulin Rouge!, not A Beautiful Mind); 2005 (The Aviator, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2007 (Little Miss Sunshine, not The Departed); 2016 (The Big Short, not Spotlight); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2020 (1917, not Parasite)list
- Critics Choice: 2005 (Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2011 (The Social Network, not The King's Speech); 2015 (Boyhood, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2019 (Roma, not Green Book); 2020 (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog, not CODA)list
- Actor Awards: 2001 (Traffic, not Gladiator); 2002 (Gosford Park, not A Beautiful Mind); 2005 (Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2007 (Little Miss Sunshine, not The Departed); 2010 (Inglourious Basterds, not The Hurt Locker); 2012 (The Help, not The Artist); 2014 (American Hustle, not 12 Years a Slave); 2017 (Hidden Figures, not Moonlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, not The Shape of Water); 2019 (Black Panther, not Green Book); 2021 (The Trial of the Chicago 7, not Nomadland); 2025 (Conclave, not Anora); 2026 (Sinners, not One Battle after Another)list
- Globes: 2005 (The Aviator and Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line, not Crash); 2007 (Babel and Dreamgirls, not The Departed); 2008 (Atonement and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, not No Country for Old Men); 2010 (Avatar and The Hangover, not The Hurt Locker); 2011 (The Social Network and The Kids Are All Right, not The King's Speech); 2015 (Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2016 (The Revenant and The Martian, not Spotlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird, not The Shape of Water); 2020 (1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, not CODA); 2023 (The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, not Everything Everywhere All at Once); 2025 (The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, not Anora)list
- BAFTA: 2002 (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, not A Beautiful Mind); 2003 (The Pianist, not Chicago); 2005 (The Aviator, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2007 (The Queen, not The Departed); 2008 (Atonement, not No Country for Old Men); 2015 (Boyhood, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2016 (The Revenant, not Spotlight); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, not The Shape of Water); 2019 (Roma, not Green Book); 2020 (1917, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog, not CODA); 2023 (All Quiet on the Western Front, not Everything Everywhere All at Once); 2025 (Conclave, not Anora)list
A precursor matches when its winner is the film (Best Picture) or the person (Director and acting) who won the Oscar that year. Ties count when any co-winner matches. For the Golden Globes, the Drama or the Musical or Comedy winner counts. Counted Oct 7, 2026.
Festival top prizes and Best Picture · 1999 to 2025 festivals
- TIFF People's Choice Award18/27 nominated6 wonWon it: American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Green Book, Nomadland
- Venice Golden Lion6/27 nominated2 wonWon it: The Shape of Water, Nomadland
- Cannes Palme d'Or7/26 nominated2 wonWon it: Parasite, Anora
Takes
On Best Picture
Back to 1929