Race for the 99th Academy Awards

Best Director

9 contenders, tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

1
Christopher Nolan
Frontrunner
The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026
NBP staff: 17/17 nominate, 10/17 pick him to win. Variety No. 2 (it predicts Villeneuve to win).
2
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo
Contender
La Bola Negra · Netflix · Out Oct 16, 2026
- Cannes: Best Director (tie, Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)
NBP 17/17 nominate, 6/17 to win. Shared Cannes directing prize.
3
Martin McDonagh
Contender
Wild Horse Nine · Searchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026
NBP 14/17 nominate. Variety No. 3, Awards Daily No. 3.
4
Denis Villeneuve
Contender
Dune: Part Three · Warner Bros. Pictures · Out Dec 18, 2026
Variety's predicted winner (Oct 1). NBP 10/17 nominate. Film unseen until December.
5
Olivia Wilde
Contender
The Invite · A24 · Released Jun 26, 2026
NBP 12/17 nominate. Variety No. 5, Awards Daily No. 4.
6
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller
Longshot
Project Hail Mary · Amazon MGM Studios · Released Mar 20, 2026
AwardsWatch No. 4 (Sept 10); outside NBP's five.
7
David Fincher
Longshot
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth · Netflix · Out Nov 25, 2026
Awards Daily No. 5. Film unseen until late November.
8
Cristian Mungiu
Longshot
Fjord · Neon · Out Oct 9, 2026
- Cannes: Palme d'Or
Awards Daily alternate. Palme d'Or winner.
9
Ryusuke Hamaguchi
Longshot
All of a Sudden · Neon · Out Nov 25, 2026
Outside the main fives; film has strong International and Best Picture support.

Precursor record, 2000 to 2026

What usually predicts this one

Every category

2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed

DGA

23/27

85%

Critics Choice

20/27

74%

BAFTA

15/27

56%

Globes

15/27

56%

2026: DGA and the Oscar both went to Paul Thomas Anderson.

Best Director: how often each precursor matched, by window
Window	2000 to 2026	Since 2010	Last 10
DGA	23/27	15/17	9/10
Critics Choice	20/27	12/17	9/10
BAFTA	15/27	11/17	7/10
Globes	15/27	9/17	7/10

Every miss, year by year

DGA: 2001 (Ang Lee, not Steven Soderbergh); 2003 (Rob Marshall, not Roman Polanski); 2013 (Ben Affleck, not Ang Lee); 2020 (Sam Mendes, not Bong Joon Ho)list
Critics Choice: 2003 (Steven Spielberg, not Roman Polanski); 2005 (Martin Scorsese, not Clint Eastwood); 2011 (David Fincher, not Tom Hooper); 2013 (Ben Affleck, not Ang Lee); 2015 (Richard Linklater, not Alejandro G. Iñárritu); 2016 (George Miller, not Alejandro G. Iñárritu); 2025 (Jon M. Chu, not Sean Baker)list
BAFTA: 2000 (Pedro Almodóvar, not Sam Mendes); 2001 (Ang Lee, not Steven Soderbergh); 2002 (Peter Jackson, not Ron Howard); 2004 (Peter Weir, not Peter Jackson); 2005 (Mike Leigh, not Clint Eastwood); 2007 (Paul Greengrass, not Martin Scorsese); 2011 (David Fincher, not Tom Hooper); 2013 (Ben Affleck, not Ang Lee); 2015 (Richard Linklater, not Alejandro G. Iñárritu); 2020 (Sam Mendes, not Bong Joon Ho); 2023 (Edward Berger, not Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert); 2025 (Brady Corbet, not Sean Baker)list
Globes: 2001 (Ang Lee, not Steven Soderbergh); 2002 (Robert Altman, not Ron Howard); 2003 (Martin Scorsese, not Roman Polanski); 2008 (Julian Schnabel, not Joel Coen and Ethan Coen); 2010 (James Cameron, not Kathryn Bigelow); 2011 (David Fincher, not Tom Hooper); 2012 (Martin Scorsese, not Michel Hazanavicius); 2013 (Ben Affleck, not Ang Lee); 2015 (Richard Linklater, not Alejandro G. Iñárritu); 2020 (Sam Mendes, not Bong Joon Ho); 2023 (Steven Spielberg, not Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert); 2025 (Brady Corbet, not Sean Baker)list