Race for the 99th Academy Awards

Best Actor

11 contenders, tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. Updated Oct 7, 2026.

Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

1
John Malkovich
Frontrunner
Wild Horse Nine · Searchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026
- Venice: Volpi Cup for Best Actor (John Malkovich)
Venice Volpi Cup winner. Variety's predicted winner. NBP 17/17 nominate, 9/17 to win.
2
Matt Damon
Contender
The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026
NBP 17/17 nominate. Variety No. 2.
3
Andrew Scott
Contender
Elsinore · Focus Features · Out Nov 20, 2026
- TIFF: International People's Choice Award
Awards Daily No. 1 (Oct 2) and AwardsWatch No. 1 (Sept 10). NBP 16/17 nominate, 6/17 to win.
4
Tom Cruise
Contender
Digger · Warner Bros. Pictures · Released Oct 2, 2026
NBP 9/17 nominate. Film opened Oct 2.
5
Ryan Gosling
Contender
Project Hail Mary · Amazon MGM Studios · Released Mar 20, 2026
Awards Daily No. 4. Outside NBP's five.
6
Robert Pattinson
Longshot
Primetime · A24 · Released Sep 25, 2026
NBP 7/17 nominate.
7
Pedro Pascal
Longshot
Behemoth! · Searchlight Pictures · Out Dec 4, 2026
Variety No. 4. NYFF centerpiece.
8
John Turturro
Longshot
The Only Living Pickpocket in New York · Sony Pictures Classics · Out Oct 16, 2026
Variety No. 5.
9
Anthony Ippolito
Longshot
I Play Rocky · Amazon MGM Studios · Out Nov 6, 2026
Awards Daily No. 5.
10
Sebastian Stan
Longshot
Fjord · Neon · Out Oct 9, 2026
Lead of the Palme d'Or winner.
11
Brad Pitt
Longshot
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth · Netflix · Out Nov 25, 2026
Awards Daily alternate.

Precursor record, 2000 to 2026

What usually predicts this one

Every category

2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed

Actor Awards

20/27

74%

Globes

Drama or Musical or Comedy winner

19/27

70%

BAFTA

18/27

67%

Critics Choice

18/27

67%

2026: Actor Awards and the Oscar both went to Michael B. Jordan.

Best Actor: how often each precursor matched, by window
Window	2000 to 2026	Since 2010	Last 10
Actor Awards	20/27	14/17	7/10
Globes	19/27	14/17	7/10
BAFTA	18/27	13/17	8/10
Critics Choice	18/27	11/17	6/10

Globes counts either winner. Alone: Drama 17 of 27; Musical or Comedy 2 of 27.

Every miss, year by year

Actor Awards: 2001 (Benicio del Toro, not Russell Crowe); 2002 (Russell Crowe, not Denzel Washington); 2003 (Daniel Day-Lewis, not Adrien Brody); 2004 (Johnny Depp, not Sean Penn); 2017 (Denzel Washington, not Casey Affleck); 2021 (Chadwick Boseman, not Anthony Hopkins); 2025 (Timothée Chalamet, not Adrien Brody)list
Globes: 2000 (Denzel Washington and Jim Carrey, not Kevin Spacey); 2001 (Tom Hanks and George Clooney, not Russell Crowe); 2002 (Russell Crowe and Gene Hackman, not Denzel Washington); 2003 (Jack Nicholson and Richard Gere, not Adrien Brody); 2009 (Mickey Rourke and Colin Farrell, not Sean Penn); 2021 (Chadwick Boseman and Sacha Baron Cohen, not Anthony Hopkins); 2023 (Austin Butler and Colin Farrell, not Brendan Fraser); 2026 (Wagner Moura and Timothée Chalamet, not Michael B. Jordan)list
BAFTA: 2001 (Jamie Bell, not Russell Crowe); 2002 (Russell Crowe, not Denzel Washington); 2003 (Daniel Day-Lewis, not Adrien Brody); 2004 (Bill Murray, not Sean Penn); 2009 (Mickey Rourke, not Sean Penn); 2010 (Colin Firth, not Jeff Bridges); 2014 (Chiwetel Ejiofor, not Matthew McConaughey); 2023 (Austin Butler, not Brendan Fraser); 2026 (Robert Aramayo, not Michael B. Jordan)list
Critics Choice: 2000 (Russell Crowe, not Kevin Spacey); 2002 (Russell Crowe, not Denzel Washington); 2003 (Daniel Day-Lewis and Jack Nicholson, not Adrien Brody); 2012 (George Clooney, not Jean Dujardin); 2015 (Michael Keaton, not Eddie Redmayne); 2019 (Christian Bale, not Rami Malek); 2021 (Chadwick Boseman, not Anthony Hopkins); 2024 (Paul Giamatti, not Cillian Murphy); 2026 (Timothée Chalamet, not Michael B. Jordan)list