Best Picture
12 contenders, tiers as of Oct 6, 2026. .
The contenders
- 1
The Odyssey
FrontrunnerUniversal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026No. 1 for Variety (Oct 1), Awards Daily (Oct 2), World of Reel (Oct 6) and THR (Sept 12). NBP staff: 17/17 nominate, 9/17 pick it to win. About $1.77B worldwide per Wikipedia.
- 2
La Bola Negra
ContenderNetflix · Out Oct 16, 2026- Cannes: Best Director (tie, Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)
- TIFF: People's Choice Award
Closest challenger. NBP staff: 17/17 nominate, 8/17 pick it to win. Variety No. 3, Awards Daily No. 2. Also Spain's International Feature entry.
- 3
Wild Horse Nine
ContenderSearchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026- Venice: Volpi Cup for Best Actor (John Malkovich)
In every tracker's ten. Variety No. 4, NBP 17/17 nominate. Venice and Telluride premiere.
- 4
Project Hail Mary
ContenderAmazon MGM Studios · Released Mar 20, 2026In every tracker's ten. NBP 17/17 nominate. March release, about $685M worldwide per Wikipedia.
- 5
Dune: Part Three
ContenderWarner Bros. Pictures · Out Dec 18, 2026Not yet screened. Variety No. 2, NBP 17/17 nominate. Opens Dec 18.
- 7
The Invite
ContenderA24 · Released Jun 26, 2026Sundance premiere, June release. Variety No. 6, NBP 16/17 nominate.
- 8
All of a Sudden
ContenderNeon · Out Nov 25, 2026- Cannes: Best Actress (shared, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto)
NBP 14/17 nominate. Japan's International Feature entry.
- 9
I Play Rocky
ContenderAmazon MGM Studios · Out Nov 6, 2026- TIFF: People's Choice Award, first runner-up
Variety No. 5, Awards Daily No. 6. Not in NBP's top ten.
- 10
Fjord
ContenderNeon · Out Oct 9, 2026- Cannes: Palme d'Or
Awards Daily No. 5. Romania's International Feature entry.
- 11
Obsession
LongshotFocus Features · Released May 15, 2026Low-budget hit (about $520M worldwide on a budget under $1M, per Wikipedia). NBP 6/17 nominate, Awards Daily No. 9.
- 12
Netflix · Out Nov 25, 2026Not yet screened. Awards Daily No. 8. David Fincher directs a Quentin Tarantino script.
What usually predicts this one
2026: PGA and the Oscar both went to One Battle after Another.
| Window | 2000 to 2026 | Since 2010 | Last 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGA | 20/27 | 14/17 | 8/10 |
| Critics Choice | 19/27 | 11/17 | 6/10 |
| Actor Awards | 14/27 | 8/17 | 4/10 |
| Globes | 14/27 | 8/17 | 5/10 |
| BAFTA | 12/27 | 8/17 | 3/10 |
Globes counts either winner. Alone: Drama 10 of 27; Musical or Comedy 4 of 27.
Every miss, year by year
- PGA: 2002 (Moulin Rouge!, not A Beautiful Mind); 2005 (The Aviator, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2007 (Little Miss Sunshine, not The Departed); 2016 (The Big Short, not Spotlight); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2020 (1917, not Parasite)list
- Critics Choice: 2005 (Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2011 (The Social Network, not The King's Speech); 2015 (Boyhood, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2019 (Roma, not Green Book); 2020 (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog, not CODA)list
- Actor Awards: 2001 (Traffic, not Gladiator); 2002 (Gosford Park, not A Beautiful Mind); 2005 (Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2007 (Little Miss Sunshine, not The Departed); 2010 (Inglourious Basterds, not The Hurt Locker); 2012 (The Help, not The Artist); 2014 (American Hustle, not 12 Years a Slave); 2017 (Hidden Figures, not Moonlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, not The Shape of Water); 2019 (Black Panther, not Green Book); 2021 (The Trial of the Chicago 7, not Nomadland); 2025 (Conclave, not Anora); 2026 (Sinners, not One Battle after Another)list
- Globes: 2005 (The Aviator and Sideways, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain and Walk the Line, not Crash); 2007 (Babel and Dreamgirls, not The Departed); 2008 (Atonement and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, not No Country for Old Men); 2010 (Avatar and The Hangover, not The Hurt Locker); 2011 (The Social Network and The Kids Are All Right, not The King's Speech); 2015 (Boyhood and The Grand Budapest Hotel, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2016 (The Revenant and The Martian, not Spotlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and Lady Bird, not The Shape of Water); 2020 (1917 and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog and West Side Story, not CODA); 2023 (The Fabelmans and The Banshees of Inisherin, not Everything Everywhere All at Once); 2025 (The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez, not Anora)list
- BAFTA: 2002 (The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring, not A Beautiful Mind); 2003 (The Pianist, not Chicago); 2005 (The Aviator, not Million Dollar Baby); 2006 (Brokeback Mountain, not Crash); 2007 (The Queen, not The Departed); 2008 (Atonement, not No Country for Old Men); 2015 (Boyhood, not Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)); 2016 (The Revenant, not Spotlight); 2017 (La La Land, not Moonlight); 2018 (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, not The Shape of Water); 2019 (Roma, not Green Book); 2020 (1917, not Parasite); 2022 (The Power of the Dog, not CODA); 2023 (All Quiet on the Western Front, not Everything Everywhere All at Once); 2025 (Conclave, not Anora)list
