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Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

  1. 1

    Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo and Alberto Conejero

    Frontrunner
    La Bola Negra · Netflix · Out Oct 16, 2026

    NBP 17/17 nominate, 15/17 to win. Variety No. 3 (it predicts The Invite).

  2. 2

    Rashida Jones and Will McCormack

    Contender
    The Invite · A24 · Released Jun 26, 2026

    Variety's predicted winner. NBP 15/17 nominate.

  3. 3
    The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026

    NBP 17/17 nominate. Variety No. 2.

  4. 4

    Drew Goddard

    Contender
    Project Hail Mary · Amazon MGM Studios · Released Mar 20, 2026

    NBP 16/17 nominate.

  5. 5
    All of a Sudden · Neon · Out Nov 25, 2026

    NBP 13/17 nominate. Co-writer Léa Le Dimna has no verified IMDb ID here.

  6. 6

    Denis Villeneuve and Brian K. Vaughan

    Longshot
    Dune: Part Three · Warner Bros. Pictures · Out Dec 18, 2026

    Variety No. 4. Film unseen.

  7. 7

    Aaron Sorkin

    Longshot
    The Social Reckoning · Sony Pictures Releasing · Out Oct 9, 2026

    Outside the main fives.

  8. 8
    The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth · Netflix · Out Nov 25, 2026

    Awards Daily No. 4.

  9. 9

    James Graham

    Longshot
    Ink · Netflix · Out Dec 11, 2026

    AwardsWatch No. 5 (Sept 10).

  10. 10

    Chris Butler

    Longshot
    Wildwood · Fathom Entertainment · Out Oct 23, 2026

    Variety No. 5.

Precursor record

What usually predicts this one

Every category

No precursor history for Best Adapted Screenplay yet. The scorecard covers Picture, Director and the four acting races.

The Oscar record

The last 10 winners

Every year
  1. 2026
    Written by Paul Thomas Anderson
    One Battle After Another
  2. 2025
    Screenplay by Peter Straughan
    Conclave
  3. 2024
    Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
    American Fiction
  4. 2023
    Screenplay by Sarah Polley
    Women Talking
  5. 2022
    Screenplay by Siân Heder
    CODA
  6. 2021
    Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
    The Father
  7. 2020
    Screenplay by Taika Waititi
    Jojo Rabbit
  8. 2019
    Written by Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
    BlacKkKlansman
  9. 2018
    Screenplay by James Ivory
    Call Me by Your Name
  10. 2017
    Screenplay by Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney
    Moonlight
Shows that bear on this race

Key dates

  1. Sep 30Done
    Oscars
    Oscars International Feature submission deadline
  2. Nov 12In 36 days
    Oscars
    Oscars final general entry deadline
  3. Nov 15In 39 days
    Oscars
    Governors Awards
  4. Dec 4In 58 days
    Critics Choice
    32nd Critics Choice Awards nominations
  5. Dec 7In 61 days
    Globes
    84th Golden Globes nominations
  6. Dec 15In 69 days
    Oscars
    Oscars shortlists announced
  7. Jan 3In 88 days
    Critics Choice
    32nd Critics Choice Awards
  8. Jan 7In 92 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards longlists
  9. Jan 8In 93 days
    WGA
    79th Writers Guild Awards screenplay nominations
  10. Jan 10In 95 days
    Globes
    84th Golden Globes
  11. Jan 19In 104 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards nominations
  12. Jan 21In 106 days
    Oscars
    99th Academy Awards nominations
  13. Feb 13In 129 days
    WGA
    79th Writers Guild Awards
  14. Feb 16In 132 days
    Oscars
    Oscar nominees luncheon
  15. Feb 21In 137 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards
  16. Feb 25In 141 days
    Oscars
    Oscar final voting opens (closes Mar 4)
  17. Mar 14In 158 days
    Oscars
    99th Academy Awards
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On Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Adapted Screenplay race: 99th Academy Awards | Cinemuse