Skip to content
Frontrunners first, with this season's prizes

The contenders

  1. 1

    Paul Giamatti

    Frontrunner
    The Debut · A24 · Out Dec 11, 2026

    Variety's predicted winner. NBP 16/17 nominate, 14/17 to win.

  2. 2

    Sam Rockwell

    Contender
    Wild Horse Nine · Searchlight Pictures · Out Nov 6, 2026

    NBP 16/17 nominate. Variety No. 2.

  3. 3
    The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026

    NBP 14/17 nominate. Variety No. 4.

  4. 4

    Edward Norton

    Contender
    The Invite · A24 · Released Jun 26, 2026

    NBP 12/17 nominate.

  5. 5
    Artificial · Neon · Out Dec 25, 2026

    NBP 10/17 nominate. Variety No. 5. NYFF premiere.

  6. 6
    La Bola Negra · Netflix · Out Oct 16, 2026

    Awards Daily No. 2.

  7. 7
    The Odyssey · Universal Pictures · Released Jul 17, 2026

    Variety No. 3. Also a lead contender for Primetime.

  8. 8

    John Goodman

    Longshot
    Digger · Warner Bros. Pictures · Released Oct 2, 2026

    AwardsWatch No. 1 on Sept 10, before Digger opened.

  9. 9
    The Social Reckoning · Sony Pictures Releasing · Out Oct 9, 2026

    Awards Daily No. 4.

  10. 10
    Michael · Lionsgate · Released Apr 24, 2026

    AwardsWatch No. 4 on Sept 10.

Precursor record, 2000 to 2026

What usually predicts this one

Every category
2000 to 2026 · 27 ceremonies Matched the Oscar Missed
Actor Awards
20/27
74%
Globes
20/27
74%
BAFTA
18/27
67%
Critics Choice
18/27
67%

2026: Actor Awards and the Oscar both went to Sean Penn.

Best Supporting Actor: how often each precursor matched, by window
Window2000 to 2026Since 2010Last 10
Actor Awards20/2715/1710/10
Globes20/2713/177/10
BAFTA18/2713/178/10
Critics Choice18/2714/179/10
Every miss, year by year
  • Actor Awards: 2001 (Albert Finney, not Benicio Del Toro); 2002 (Ian McKellen, not Jim Broadbent); 2003 (Christopher Walken, not Chris Cooper); 2006 (Paul Giamatti, not George Clooney); 2007 (Eddie Murphy, not Alan Arkin); 2013 (Tommy Lee Jones, not Christoph Waltz); 2016 (Idris Elba, not Mark Rylance)list
  • Globes: 2000 (Tom Cruise, not Michael Caine); 2005 (Clive Owen, not Morgan Freeman); 2007 (Eddie Murphy, not Alan Arkin); 2016 (Sylvester Stallone, not Mark Rylance); 2017 (Aaron Taylor-Johnson, not Mahershala Ali); 2022 (Kodi Smit-McPhee, not Troy Kotsur); 2026 (Stellan Skarsgård, not Sean Penn)list
  • BAFTA: 2000 (Jude Law, not Michael Caine); 2003 (Christopher Walken, not Chris Cooper); 2004 (Bill Nighy, not Tim Robbins); 2005 (Clive Owen, not Morgan Freeman); 2006 (Jake Gyllenhaal, not George Clooney); 2011 (Geoffrey Rush, not Christian Bale); 2014 (Barkhad Abdi, not Jared Leto); 2017 (Dev Patel, not Mahershala Ali); 2023 (Barry Keoghan, not Ke Huy Quan)list
  • Critics Choice: 2000 (Michael Clarke Duncan, not Michael Caine); 2001 (Joaquin Phoenix, not Benicio Del Toro); 2002 (Ben Kingsley, not Jim Broadbent); 2005 (Thomas Haden Church, not Morgan Freeman); 2006 (Paul Giamatti, not George Clooney); 2007 (Eddie Murphy, not Alan Arkin); 2013 (Philip Seymour Hoffman, not Christoph Waltz); 2016 (Sylvester Stallone, not Mark Rylance); 2026 (Jacob Elordi, not Sean Penn)list
The Oscar record

The last 10 winners

Every year
  1. 2026
    Sean Penn
    One Battle After Another
  2. 2025
    Kieran Culkin
    A Real Pain
  3. 2024
    Robert Downey Jr.
    Oppenheimer
  4. 2023
    Ke Huy Quan
    Everything Everywhere All at Once
  5. 2022
    Troy Kotsur
    CODA
  6. 2021
    Daniel Kaluuya
    Judas and the Black Messiah
  7. 2020
    Brad Pitt
    Once Upon a Time in... Hollywood
  8. 2019
    Mahershala Ali
    Green Book
  9. 2018
    Sam Rockwell
    Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  10. 2017
    Mahershala Ali
    Moonlight
Shows that bear on this race

Key dates

  1. Sep 30Done
    Oscars
    Oscars International Feature submission deadline
  2. Nov 12In 36 days
    Oscars
    Oscars final general entry deadline
  3. Nov 15In 39 days
    Oscars
    Governors Awards
  4. Dec 4In 58 days
    Critics Choice
    32nd Critics Choice Awards nominations
  5. Dec 7In 61 days
    Globes
    84th Golden Globes nominations
  6. Dec 15In 69 days
    Oscars
    Oscars shortlists announced
  7. Jan 3In 88 days
    Critics Choice
    32nd Critics Choice Awards
  8. Jan 6In 91 days
    Actor Awards
    33rd Actor Awards (SAG-AFTRA) nominations
  9. Jan 7In 92 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards longlists
  10. Jan 10In 95 days
    Globes
    84th Golden Globes
  11. Jan 19In 104 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards nominations
  12. Jan 21In 106 days
    Oscars
    99th Academy Awards nominations
  13. Feb 16In 132 days
    Oscars
    Oscar nominees luncheon
  14. Feb 21In 137 days
    BAFTA
    80th BAFTA Film Awards
  15. Feb 25In 141 days
    Oscars
    Oscar final voting opens (closes Mar 4)
  16. Feb 28In 144 days
    Actor Awards
    33rd Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA
  17. Mar 14In 158 days
    Oscars
    99th Academy Awards
0 ballots so far

Community picks over time

No ballots in yet

Community picks chart here day by day once people vote.

Cast your ballot
Takes

On Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor race: 99th Academy Awards | Cinemuse